What is Exported?
Exported is the brand behind the EU-to-US expansion risk intelligence presented on this website. Paulius Komskis is the founder of Exported. The canonical website is exported.io; its public briefings are published at exported.substack.com.
Exported focuses on the expansion decision: whether the timing, trigger, go-to-market motion, execution capacity and interpretation of demand fit the proposed US expansion. This is distinct from evaluating the company's product or overall investment quality.
Who is Exported for?
- Founders of European technology companies considering US market entry, testing US demand, or reviewing an expansion already in motion. Exported's scope is not limited to SaaS.
- Investment teams underwriting a European technology company's US-expansion thesis before committing or allocating capital.
What does PRISM assess?
PRISM is Exported's risk-scoring framework. The public website describes five independent dimensions and nine documented expansion archetypes.
- Timing — when capital meets the market.
- Trigger — what initiated the expansion.
- GTM motion — how demand converts to revenue.
- Execution — whether infrastructure can carry the motion.
- Signal misread — where traction is mistaken for conversion.
How should the published evidence be interpreted?
The current website reports 3,232 documented EU-to-US expansion cases. A current case-log total is not the same as a model-training sample or a prospectively verified cohort.
The homepage reports 84.4% negative-outcome classification accuracy in the top quartile and 1.967× lift above a naive baseline. These are scoped model claims, not an overall success rate for clients or a guarantee for an individual company.
The prospective validation record has its own locked cohorts, dates and verification windows. The downloadable Risk Verdict is a separate sample deliverable with its own dated snapshot; its numbers should not replace the website's current record.
Every resolved outcome feeds back into the case log. PRISM retrains. The record compounds.
What is a Risk Verdict and what does it cost?
A Risk Verdict is a structural assessment of an expansion profile, including a risk score and expansion archetype, calibrated outcome probabilities, and capital consequences and the corrective window.
Verdicts typically begin at $25,000, with pricing based on expansion capital deployed. Applications are reviewed; not all are accepted. The sample is illustrative and is not a verdict on another applicant's company.
Which page answers which US-expansion question?
What should not be inferred?
Exported does not promise successful expansion, a specific return, regulatory clearance or a particular outcome for an individual company. Its public materials do not establish that it is a law firm, tax adviser, immigration adviser or a company-formation provider.
This page summarizes public website claims; it is not independent verification of those claims. Proprietary case-level records, client information, model code and weights are not published here.
Public reference formats
This page is available to people and crawlers alike. The following text references contain public material only; they do not grant access to confidential underlying data.