1. Specify the US buyer before the market size
Start with the segment, problem, budget owner and buying process. A large addressable market does not tell a founder which accounts to pursue or why those accounts would switch from their existing solution.
PRISM's GTM-motion dimension asks how demand converts to revenue. Use that question to examine the actual buyer and conversion process, rather than treating the size of the US market as evidence that the expansion motion works.
Record disconfirming evidence as carefully as positive feedback. If interviews describe a different problem or buying process from the one in the plan, change the hypothesis before increasing the commitment.
2. Distinguish interest from repeatable conversion
Keep introductions, meetings, trials, pilots, signed contracts and collected revenue separate. Each is useful evidence, but each answers a different question. A founder-led sale through a personal relationship does not by itself establish a scalable acquisition channel.
For each serious opportunity, document how the buyer arrived, which objections appeared, who approved the purchase, what the sales process required and whether the economics could work beyond that single account.
- What did the customer pay for, and why now?
- Which conditions were exceptional: discounts, founder access, custom work or a warm introduction?
- Could another account in the same segment buy through substantially the same process?
3. Map the operating model beyond the first sale
List the people and systems required for discovery, sales, procurement, onboarding, implementation, support and renewal. Put an owner against each stage, including what happens outside European working hours.
Do not assume the same team can absorb every new requirement without slowing the existing business. Test where founder involvement is necessary and where the plan depends on a hire or partner who is not yet in place.
PRISM's execution dimension asks whether infrastructure can carry the motion. A structural assessment does not replace qualified advice on entity structure, employment or tax.
4. Make the capital decision conditional
Build a base case and a downside case that connect revenue timing to the actual spending plan. Include sales capacity, implementation effort, support, travel and the resources needed to protect the home-market business.
Set evidence gates before committing the next tranche of resources. The useful question is not simply 'Do we have enough runway?' but 'What will we know before the next difficult-to-reverse decision?'
A gate should name the evidence, the owner, the decision date and the action if the evidence is absent. The numbers must come from the company's economics; there is no universal budget or runway threshold in this guide.
5. Choose a test, a commitment or a pause
In Exported's framework, an unresolved assumption is a reason to design a test, not to label the entire company unready. A limited experiment may be appropriate before a local team, office or broader expansion budget.
Summarize the decision in one page: target buyer, evidence observed, assumptions remaining, next experiment, budget exposure and stop conditions. Revisit it when the evidence changes rather than treating the initial plan as fixed.
Do you need a US entity before testing demand?
This guide does not prescribe an entity setup or say that sales can legally proceed without one. The relevant requirements depend on your activities and circumstances. Discuss the legal and tax position with qualified advisers while keeping the commercial demand test a separate decision.
Should a founder relocate first? There is no universal sequence. Identify which activities require local presence and which assumption relocation would help test before making a personal and operational commitment.
Exported's framework and source material
These notes explain Exported's published PRISM framework and Risk Verdict scope. The questions are a reading guide, not additional research findings or a company-specific assessment. The website's current evidence record and the sample Verdict's dated snapshot remain separate. This is not legal, tax, immigration or investment advice.