PROSPECTIVELY VALIDATED · EU→US EXPANSION INTELLIGENCE / 001
UNDERWRITE THE EXPANSION, NOT JUST THE COMPANY.
Know the structural risk before you deploy the capital.
APPLY FOR A RISK VERDICT01 / THE PROBLEM
DUE DILIGENCE BACKS THE COMPANY.
WHO BACKS THE EXPANSION?
Across 3,232 documented EU→US tech expansions, a working product and an active U.S. pipeline were not enough. The failure was structural: the expansion motion was misclassified before it was tested at scale.
By the time misalignment becomes visible, capital is committed, hiring is in place, and correction means unwinding multiple systems at once.
01 Months to first U.S. revenue is the highest-weight variable.
02 Investor-pressure expansions show a 66% negative outcome rate in the case log.
THE U.S. DOES NOT SURFACE STRUCTURAL RISK EARLY. IT MAKES IT EXPENSIVE TO CORRECT.
02 / RISK-SCORING ARCHITECTURE
PRISM™
SEE THE STRUCTURE.
Five independent dimensions. Nine documented expansion archetypes. One structural risk verdict.
TIMING
When capital meets the market
TRIGGER
What initiated the expansion
GTM MOTION
How demand converts to revenue
EXECUTION
Whether infrastructure can carry the motion
SIGNAL MISREAD
Where traction is mistaken for conversion
03 / THE EVIDENCE
NOT A THEORY.
AN OUTCOME RECORD.
A documented database of EU→US expansion cases. 3,232 cases in the current log. Outcomes verified as they resolve.
Accuracy on negative outcome classification in the top quartile. PRISM™ classifications: 1.967× above naive baseline.
XGBoost cross-validated AUC. Current case log: 3,232 cases. Calibrated probability outputs with 90% confidence intervals.
Cox model concordance. Estimating not just whether structural friction occurs, but when.
Nodes. 10,611 edges. 1,416 documented EU→US expansion corridor patterns.
Every resolved outcome feeds back into the case log. PRISM™ retrains. The record compounds.
PROSPECTIVE VALIDATION RECORD
PRISM™ v2 cohort locked July 2026. Scores sealed. No outcome research. Then we verified.
First verification window — September 2026 (2–3 months post-lock):
83% directional accuracy on early-resolving companies. 100% Red-tier accuracy. 2.32× lift at Red tier. Ground-truth retrospective: 12 of 12.
Every score was locked before a single outcome was known. This is not a one-time test. Three verification windows are scheduled:
- September 2026 — First check (2–3 months). Complete. ✓
- December 2026 — Second check (5–6 months). Scheduled.
- March 2027 — Final check (8–9 months). Scheduled.
v3 cohort locked September 2026: 30 additional companies scored blind — 10 at Red tier. Combined prospective pipeline: 67 companies across two independent lock dates.
The first prospective blind validation of any EU→US expansion intelligence system — and the only one with a published multi-window verification roadmap.
04 / THE DELIVERABLE
A VERDICT.
NOT A DECK.
Your expansion profile, scored against 3,232 documented cases. A direct structural judgment on whether the current motion can convert — and what it will cost if it cannot.
Built for investment teams underwriting the expansion thesis.
- 01 Structural risk score & expansion archetype
- 02 Calibrated outcome probabilities
- 03 Capital consequence & corrective window
PRICING BASED ON EXPANSION CAPITAL DEPLOYED VERDICTS TYPICALLY BEGIN AT $25,000.
VIEW THE SAMPLE VERDICT
05 / NEXT ACTION
KNOW BEFORE
YOU COMMIT.
Capital should follow evidence.
Applications reviewed within 24 hours. Not all applications are accepted.
APPLY FOR A RISK VERDICT06 / INTELLIGENCE FEED
THE SIGNAL
CONTINUES.
Weekly EU→US risk intelligence for founders and investors making high-stakes expansion decisions.